摘要：改革开放以来我国遇到三次由于外部影响而产生的经济下行压力，1998年的亚洲金融危机，2008年的美国金融危机，2018年的中美贸易摩擦。本报告分析这三次应对下行压力的几个问题，特别是此次中美贸易摩擦的应对。
题目：Trading Restriction and Stock Crash Risks: Evidence from Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect
摘要：We investigate the effects of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect on the crash risks of connected stocks. We find that the crash risks of connected stocks, with high probability to be removed from the connect program, increase significantly than that of unconnected stocks after included in the program. On the contrary, we find that there is no difference for the crash risk changes, between connected stocks with low probability to be removed and unconnected stocks. Based on a series of evidences, we conclude the crash risk changes come from the trading restriction of the connect program, i.e., once the stocks are removed from the program, investors are only allowed to sell these stocks, but not allowed to buy. It is due to investors’ worry of the trading restriction that they do not hold such stocks in a long time, thus the crash risks of these stocks increase.
