寻找制度的工具变量:估计制度效应对中国经济增长的贡献
方颖
厦门大学王亚南经济研究院
赵扬
厦门大学王亚南经济研究院
12/22/2010 3:17:28 PM
摘要:
本文旨在建立制度的合适工具变量,从而能够正确估计制度对中国经济增长的贡献。我们提出以中国1919年基督教教会初级小学的注册学生人数作为制度的工具变量,并详细论述工具变量的相关性和外生性诸条件。通过两阶段最小二乘法, 我们发现制度对中国经济的贡献显著为正。在控制了地理因素和政府政策效应等变量以后,制度对经济增长的效应仍然最为显著。
关键词: 
制度、地理因素、政策效应
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of institutions on economic performance in China. We use the enrollment in Christian missionary lower primary schools in China in 1919 as the instrument for current institutions. Employing the two-stage least squares method, we find that the impact of institutions on Chinese economic growth is positive and statistically significant. The result survives various robustness checks with addition of geographic and policy related variables.
Keyword: 
Institution, Geographic factors, Economic Policy