Abstracts of Papers 论文摘要

December 16, 2006

Section 1 (English) Keynote Session I: China's Labor Market: Overviews

[1] "Making Labor Relations Work for China: Lessons from the Outside World"
从他国经验看如何理顺中国的劳动关系
Richard Freeman, Harvard University and NBER, USA (美国哈佛大学，美国国家经济研究局)

[2] "China's Three Transitions and Its Implications for Social Security and Labor Market"
中国经济的三次转折及其对社会保险、劳动力市场的影响
Athar Hussain, London School of Economics, UK (英国伦敦经济学院)

[3] "Some Potential Stumbling Blocks in China's Growth Path"
中国经济增长方式一些潜在的绊脚石
Wing Thye Woo, University of California, Davis, USA and Brookings Institute, USA (美国加州大学戴维斯校区, 布鲁金斯学会)

Section 2A (English) Applied Econometrics (I): Income

[1] "One-Child Policy, Fertility and Growth"
独生子女政策、生育率和经济发展
Hongbin Li (李宏彬) Chinese University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China (香港中文大学)
Junsen Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China

[2] "Selection Bias, Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Returns to Education: Evidence from China"
选择偏差、相对优势和教育回报率差异：来自中国的证据
James J. Heckman, University of Chicago
Xuesong Li (李雪松) (xsli@cass.org.cn), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China (中国社科院数量与技术经济研究所)

Abstract: This paper uses newly available Chinese micro data to estimate the return to college education for late 20th century China when allowing for heterogeneous returns among individuals selecting into schooling based on these differences. We use recently developed semiparametric methods to identify the parameters of interest. We demonstrate that heterogeneity among people in returns to schooling is substantial. People sort into schooling on the basis of the principle of comparative advantage, which we document to be an empirically important phenomenon in modern Chinese labor markets. The effect on earnings of sending a randomly selected person to college is a 43% increase in lifetime earnings (nearly 11% annually) in 2000 for young people in urban areas of six provinces of China. The effect of college on those who go is 13%. Our evidence implies that after 20-plus years of economic reform with market orientation, the average return to education has increased substantially in China, compared to the returns measured in the 1980’s and the early 1990’s.

摘要：本文使用最新的中国微观数据测算20世纪末中国的本科教育回报率。测算中，我们考虑了个体回报率差异以及基于这种差异而产生的教育决策的差异。我们采用新近开发的各种半参数方法来进行参数识别。我们的研究表明教育回报率在个体之间存在明显差异。人们根据相对优势的原则将自己归于不同的教育水平类别。我们的实证研究表明这一现象在当代中国的劳动力市场上确实是一个重要现象。根据我们的测算，将在2000年6个中国省份中随机选择的一个年轻人赋予本科教育会使他的一生收入增加43%，也就是年均11%。相应的，本科教育对于那些自己选择接受本科教育的人的收入影响是年均13%。我们的研究证据显示经过20年以上的市场化的经济改革，相对20世纪80年代和90年代早期，中国的平均教育回报率增加显著。

[3] "A Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Labor Migration on the Disparity of Regional Economic Development in Mainland China"
Zhengming Qian (钱争鸣), Xiamen University
Xiuhua Zhang, Xiamen University
Yangping Yu, Xiamen University
Pengfei Guo, Xiamen University

Abstract: Labor migration has significant influences on regional economic development. There are two opposing views on such influences. One view suggests that labor migration narrows regional economic disparity while the other persists in that labor migration broadens regional economic disparity. Based on China’s provincial economic data, this paper constructs spatial econometric model for empirical analyses after taking the spatial dependence among regions into account. The empirical results show that labor migration exerts different impacts on economic development in different regions. In particular, the labor inflow broadens regional economic disparity whereas labor outflow narrows regional economic disparity.

Section 2B (English) Labor Markets of OECD Countries (I): Public Policy

[1] "Does the Impact of Welfare to Work Depend on the State of the Labor Market? The Case of the UK New Deal for Young People"
“从福利到就业”政策的影响是否依赖于劳动力市场形势：英联邦对年轻人新政的案例研究)
Duncan McVicar, Queen's University Belfast, UK
Jan Podivinsky, University of Southampton, UK (英国南安普敦大学)

Abstract: There is much debate, but surprisingly little evidence, concerning the impact of primarily supply side Welfare to Work programmes in labor markets characterised by weak labor demand. The usual argument is that we might expect Welfare to Work measures to have greater impacts in tight labor markets than in slack ones because more (and perhaps better) job vacancies exist. On the other hand, the added value of such programmes may be lower in tighter labor markets. There may also be heterogeneous programme impacts if the characteristics of the unemployed differ across labor markets. In this paper we explore whether a compulsory Welfare to Work programme for unemployed young people introduced in 1998 – the UK New Deal for Young People – has had differential impacts on the probability of unemployment exits in different local labor markets. Our results show this to be the case, with the programme impact on the hazard rate for exits from unemployment increasing with the local unemployment rate. Disaggregating exits by destinations, however, shows that there exists a negative (positive) relationship between local unemployment rates and the size of the programme impact on the probability of exit to employment (inactivity).

摘要：在劳动力市场中，把福利对工作计划的影响以弱劳动力需求描述是很有争议，且很少有事实根据的。通常，我们预期在密集的劳动力市场中，福利对工作具有更大的影响。因为在松散的劳动力市场中，存在着更多（和或许更好）的工作空缺。另一方面，在越密集的劳动力市场中，这些工作计划的附加值可能越低。如果不同的劳动力市场具有不同的失业特征，那么同一个工作计划也可能存在不一致的影响。在本文中，我们研究了一个强制性从福利到就业政策是否对不同地区劳动力市场失业率有不同的影响，该工作计划是1998推行的针对年轻人失业的计划——英国年轻人新政。我们的结论是，随着地区失业率的上升，该工作计划对脱离失业风险率的影响也越大。但是，通过目的地来分解退出就业者，我们发现在地区失业率和该工作计划对退出就业（不就业）可能性影响的规模之间，存在一个负（正）的关系。
（翁云妹 译）

[2] "Unemployment Insurance's Time-varying Impacts on Re-employment Wages"
失业保险对再就业工资的时变影响
Kailing Shen (沈凯玲), Xiamen University, China (厦门大学王亚南经济研究院)

Abstract: Whether or not Unemployment Insurance (UI) coverage actually improves unemployed workers' job match quality is an old, yet open question in the empirical studies, although job search theories often claim the positive answer. A major problem with previous research is lack of control for the endogeneity between unemployment durations and reemployment wages, which should be two outcome variables of one single optimality strategy of unemployed individuals. The reservation wage (function) of an unemployed worker should determine the distributions of both his unemployment duration as well as his reemployment wage.

In this paper, I re-examine the impact of UI coverage on reemployment wages using Canadian micro-level panel data (Survey of Labor and Income Dynamics). The log-likelihood function used here, endogenizes workers' wages dynamics, as well as their employment and unemployment durations through a random effect setup. Motivated by the literature on temporary UI coverage's time-varying impacts on reemployment process, I allow the impact of UI on reemployment wages to be time-varying as well. The result shows that reemployment wages of UI-covered workers are indeed statistically higher than benefit exhaustees. That is, while UI leads to longer unemployment spells, it does indeed help to improve workers' job match qualities. On average, UI coverage increases workers' reemployment wage by 9.5%.

摘要：失业保险是否确实改善失业工人的再就业的工作匹配虽然不是一个新的问题，但至今在实证研究中对此还没有定论。工作搜寻理论通常认为失业保险能改善工人与工作的匹配。以往实证研究的主要问题是缺少对失业持续时间与再就业工资之间的内生性的控制，因为这两个变量应该是失业人员同一个最优策略决策的两个输出变量。本文采用加拿大微观面板数据就失业保险对再就业工资的影响重新做检验。在检验中考虑了工人工资的动态变化以及就业、失业持续时间的联系，并允许失业保险对再就业工资的影响随时间变化。结果显示，有失业保险金领取的工人的再就业工资确实比已经没有失业保险金领取的工人的再就业工资高。也就是说，虽然失业保险导致失业持续时间延长，但它确实能改善工人与工作的匹配。平均而言，失业保险可以使再就业工资提高9.5%。

[3] "The Erosion of Union Membership in Germany: Determinants, Densities, Decompositions"
德国工会规模缩减的分析
Bernd Fitzenberger, Goethe University Frankfurt, IFS, ZEW and IZA Bonn
Karsten Kohn, Goethe University Frankfurt and IZA Bonn
Qingwei Wang (王庆伟), Goethe University Frankfurt and ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research), Germany (德国欧洲经济研究中心)

Abstract: Union density in Germany has declined remarkably during the last two decades. We estimate socio-economic and workplace-related determinants of union membership in East and West Germany using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel by means of Chamberlain-Mundlack correlated random effects probit models. Drawing on the estimates, we project net union densities (NUD) and analyze the differences between East and West Germany as well as the corresponding changes in NUD over time. Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions show that changes in the composition of the work force have only played a minor role for the deunionization trends in East and West Germany. In East-West comparison, differences in the characteristics of the work force reflect a lower quality of membership matches in East Germany right after German unification.

摘要：在过去的20年间，德国工会密度明显下降。我们运用来自德国社会经济的面板数据，采用Chamberlain-Mundlack相关的随机效应probit模型， 对东德和西德工会会员的社会经济和工作场所的相关因素做出估计。通过这些估计，我们得出了净工会密度（NUD），分析了东西德之间的差异以及NUD随时间变动的情况。Blinder-Oaxaca 分解说明了，在东西德工会瓦解的趋势中，劳动力组成变化只起到微不足道的作用。在东西德比较中，劳动力特征的差异反映了在德国统一之后，东德的工会会员匹配素质较低。
（翁云妹 译）

Section 2C (Chinese) China's Labor Market (I)

[1] "Research on the Relation between the Phenomenon of Shortage of Rural Migrants and Industrial Structure Change：a Case Study in Guangdong"
民工短缺与产业结构变动关系研究：以广东省为例
Xinmin Chen (谌新民), South China Normal University, China (华南师范大学)
Yonggui Yang, South China Normal University, China

Abstract: The labor-intensive industry, which formed the initial stage of industrialization, has evolved over several years. However, the labor costs are getting higher and higher so that the comparative advantages of such industry will be lost sooner or later. So it is time for China to upgrade the industrial structure without doubt. Moreover, the Phenomenon of Shortage of Rural Migrants occurred in parts of the littoral provinces in China recently is an evident response to the industry upgrading. In this context, the author discusses the genuine reasons of the formation of the shortage of rural migrants according to the theory of the interactive relationship between industrial structure and employment structure. In addition, the author makes a positive analysis of instances of labor market and industrial structure in Guangdong. In the end, considering a paradox that the rural migrants are surplus in gross but limited in supply, it seems that the phenomenon of shortage of rural migrants amounts to an important market signal that shows the labor-intensive industry needs to be upgraded.

摘要：劳动力密集型产业作为工业化进程起点，当其发展到面临劳动力成本上升而导致比较优势丧失的阶段，就可能是进行产业结构优化调整的拐点，2004年中国部分沿海地区开始出现的民工短缺现象对产业升级提出了新的要求。本文通过探讨民工短缺形成的深层次原因，运用产业结构与就业结构互动关系原理，通过对广东省近年来的产业结构升级和劳动力供给情况的实证分析，从民工总量过剩与结构性短缺角度说明它是低附加值、劳动密集型产业面临产业结构优化升级的重要市场信号。

[2] "Employment (tentative)" (劳动力市场[具体题目待定])
Desheng Lai (赖德胜) (email), Beijing Normal University, China (北京师范大学)

[3] "Employment (tentative)" (劳动就业[具体题目待定])
Heqing Yang (杨河清), Capital University of Economics and Business, China (首都经贸大学劳动经济学院院长)

Section 3 (English) Keynote Session II: Econometrics

[1] "Estimating Counterfactuals in Duration Models with Heterogeneity: Labor Market Program Evaluation"
异质性持续时间模型仿真值估算：以劳动力市场公共政策评估为例
Jerry Hausman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA (美国麻省理工学院，克拉克奖得主)

[2] "The Information Basis of Matching with Propensity Scores"
倾向指数匹配的信息基础
Esfandiar Maasoumi, Southern Methodist University, USA (美国南曼瑟迪斯特大学, Econometric Reviews 主编)
Ozkan Eren, Southern Methodist University, USA

Abstract: This paper examines the foundations for comparing individuals and treatment subjects in experimental and other program evaluation contexts. We examine the question of multiattribute characterization of individuals for matching purposes, both theoretically and statistically. The paper examines the information basis of characterizing individuals and offers alternatives motivated by welfare and decision theories. The proposed method helps place propensity scores and other matching proposals in context and reveals their advantages and disadvantages. We do not find the implied theoretical assumptions underlying propensity scores to be attractive or robust. Our proposal does not solve the matching problem, but provides some helpful markers and interpretations which reveal the arbitrariness of specific solutions. A second contribution of the paper is to propose Information Theory methods for optimal matching based on entire distributions, rather than a few moments. The distribution based decision making is consistently adopted throughout the paper.

摘要：本文检验了利用实验与其他对个体及效果评估的基础。为了匹配的目的，我们还检验了个体的多重性格问题，包括理论和统计应用。本文检验了个性化个体的信息依据并提供了由福利和决策理论延伸的其它选择。本文提出的方法有助于在处理倾向得分和其它匹配问题，并揭示它们的优点和缺点。我们没发现处理倾向得分理论中具备稳健的假设。我们的方法并不解决匹配问题，但提供了一些揭示特殊解决方式任意性的帮助和解释。本文的另一个贡献是提出了基于整体分布而不是一些矩的最优匹配的信息理论方法。本文一贯以考虑了整体分布的决策方法作为分析基础。
（余洪 译）

[3] "Career Progression and Formal versus On-the-Job Training"
事业成长、离岗与在岗培训
J. Adda, University College London and IFS, UK
C. Dustmann, University College London and IFS, UK
Costas Meghir, University College London, UK (英国伦敦大学学院，Econometrica 前联合主编)
J. -M. Robin; University of Paris 1, France, University College London and IFS, UK

Abstract: We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth, allowing for job mobility, in a world where wages depend on firm-worker matches, as well as experience and tenure and jobs take time to locate. We estimate this model on a large administrative panel data set which traces labour market transitions, mobility across firms and wages from the end of statutory schooling. We use the model to evaluate the life-cycle return to apprenticeship training and find that on average the costs outweigh the benefits; however for those who choose to train the returns are positive. We then use our model to consider the long-term lifecycle effects of two reforms: One is the introduction of an Earned Income Tax Credit in Germany, and the other is a reform to Unemployment Insurance. In both reforms we find very significant impacts of the policy on training choices and on the value of realised matches, demonstrating the importance of considering such longer term implications.

摘要：我们开发了一个有关培训选择、就业以及工资增长的动态离散选择模型。我们在模型中允许工人在不同工作中转换，同时工人工资取决于厂商与工人的匹配、工人的工作经验、在本岗位时间长短和对寻找工作是一个需要耗时的过程的考虑。为了测算这个模型，我们使用了一个大型的行政面板数据库。这个数据库包含了个人从法定就学年龄之后的劳动力市场各种状态变化信息、在不同厂商之间的转换信息，以及工资信息。利用这个模型，我们评估了学徒培训对个人的一生收入的回报率，并发现平均来说入不敷出，但对那些选择培训的个人培训的汇报率是正的。接着，我们用这个模型考虑两个改革对个人一生收入的长期影响：一个是在德国引入的收入减免退税(Earned Income Tax Credit)，另一个是失业保险改革。我们发现两个改革都对个人的培训选择以及实现的厂商与工人的匹配的价值有重要影响，从而验证考虑这类长期影响的重要性。

Section 4A (English) Applied Econometrics (II)

[1] "Generalized Residual-Based Diagnostic Testing for Duration Models with Censoring"
设定检验与持续时间模型
Jing Liu, Cornell University, USA
Yongmiao Hong (洪永淼), Cornell University, USA and Xiamen University, China (美国康奈尔大学，厦门大学王亚南经济研究院院长，厦门大学经济学院经济学系主任)

[2] "Evaluating the Impacts of Washington State Repeated Job Search Services on the Earnings of Prime-age Female TANF Recipients"
华盛顿州重复工作搜寻服务政策对接受TANF的中青年女性收入影响的评估
Cheng Hsiao (萧政), University of Southern California, USA and Xiamen University, China (美国南加州大学，厦门大学王亚南经济研究院，Journal of Econometrics 主编)
Yan Shen, Peking University, China
Boqing Wang, Department of Social and Health Services, USA
Greg Weeks, Employment Security Department, USA

Abstract: This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and other personal characteristics affect the quarterly earnings of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a joint dependent framework for the probability of employment and potential earnings or hours or hourly wage rates to facilitate the investigation of the issues of joint determination of employment and potential earnings and to allow for factors to have different impacts on employment status and on quarterly earnings. We have also suggested formulae to compute the dynamic impact of JSS on duration and earnings. Both the maximum likelihood (ML) and semi-parametric estimates are provided. We find that the results are sensitive to the choice of models and estimation methods. For a randomly assigned individual, the first, second and the three or more JSS raised the short-run and long-run earnings by (5%, 0%, 0%) and (1%, 0%, 0%), respectively, based on the MLE and by (56.6%, 36.2%, 36.9%) and (50.7%, 36.2%, 36.9%), respectively based on the semi-parametric Tobit model. We have also conducted specification analysis. The results appear to favor semi-parametric Type II Tobit model estimates.

摘要：本文使用非均衡面板数据模型来评估华盛顿州的重复的工作搜寻服务（JSS）和其他个人特征如何影响初期女性社会福利接受者的季度收入。我们提出了一个联合依赖分析框架分析就业和潜在工资（或者工作时间或小时工资）的概率。这样做一方面便于研究就业和潜在工资的联合决定因素，另一方面也考虑到各种因素对就业状况和季度收入有多种不同的影响。在此基础上我们也给出了计量JSS对持续期和收入的动态影响的公式。在文中我们同时进行了极大似然估计（ML）和半参数估计，我们发现估计结果与计量模型和估计方法的选择密切相关。根据极大似然估计（MLE）,对于一个随机登记的个人来说，第一次、第二次、第三次（或者更多）的工作搜寻服务分别提高了其短期和长期收入的（5%,0%,0%）和（1%,0%,0%）。而根据半参数Tobit模型相应的结果分别是(56.6%, 36.2%, 36.9%) 和 (50.7%, 36.2%, 36.9%)。我们进行了详细的分析，结果倾向于接受半参数类型－Ⅱ的Tobit估计模型。
（李云森 译）

[3] "The Hausman Test for Correlated Effects in Panel Data Models under Misspecification" (面板数据模型误设情形下相关性效应的Hausman检验)
Raymond O'Brien, University of Southampton, UK (英国南安普敦大学)
Eleonora Patacchini, University of Rome, La Sapienza

Abstract: We investigate the performance under misspecification of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for correlated effects with panel data. Consideration of size leads to a general proposition for quadratic forms in normal variate which gives conditions for a class of test statistics, which are chi-square under correct specification, to be oversized under misspecification.

In the case of measurement error, the Hausman test is found to be a test of the difference in asymptotic biases of between and within group estimators. However, its ‘size’ is sensitive to the relative magnitude of the intra-group and inter-group variations of the covariates, and can be so large as to call into question the use of the statistic in this case. We discuss an implementation of the alternative robust formulation of the test. Power considerations are presented, using a matched employee-employer data set.

摘要：我们考察了面板数据模型误设情形下，相关性效应Durbin-Wu-Hausman检验的效果。正态变量的二次齐次式给出了一类统计检验的条件，对大小的考虑引出了一个对其一般性的命题，即在分类正确若为卡方分配，在分类有误时将有向上偏误。

就测量误差而言，Hausman检验可用来检验组间估计量和组内估计量渐进偏误的差别。但是，它的“大小”对共变量在组内和组间变化的相对强度很敏感，以至大到使人怀疑在这种情况下能否使用这种统计（检验）。用一个匹配的雇员—雇主数据集，我们讨论了Hausman检验的一种可选择的强形式的一个使用例子，并考察了其有效性。
（鄢贤宁 译）

Section 4B (Chinese) China’s Labor Market and Public Policy: Current Issues (I)

[1] "TBA"
Xiaoqiong Lai (赖小琼), Xiamen University, China (厦门大学王亚南经济研究院，厦门大学经济学院经济系)

[2] “An Empirical Study of China's Pension Policy's Impacts on the Labor Market”
我国养老保险制度的劳动力市场效应实证分析
Zeying Wang (汪泽英), Ministry of Labor and Social Security, China (劳动与社会保障部社会保障研究所宏观室主任)

Abstract: This paper, on the basis of a qualitatively study of Chins’s pension policy’s impacts on labor supply and demand, quantatively examines Chins’s pension policy’s impacts on employment. The evidence here shows that as a result of the pension policy, there is a lower total employment, a change in the composition of employment industries and administrative types. The pension policy also leads to totally different employment behavior for retired and non-retired individuals, in addition to its impacts on that of young people. Finally, this paper provides policy suggestions to improve China’s pension policy from a labor market perspective.

摘要：本文在定性地分析我国养老保险制度对劳动力供给与需求影响的基础上，实证了其对就业的影响主要表现为降低了就业总量，改变了就业的部门与单位类型结构，在改变年轻人就业行为的同时，导致退休人员与非退休人员间截然不同的就业行为。同时，从完善劳动力市场的角度，提出完善我国养老保险制度的政策建议。

[3] "Impacts of Subjective Expectations on Career Planning"
职业生涯管理中的心理契约因素
Junsheng Zhang (张俊生), Capital University of Economics and Business, China (首都经济贸易大学)

摘要：在现代企业人力资源管理中,劳动力的供求是事关经济发展和社会稳定的重大事项，也是重要内容。研究员工心里来创造最大效率,同时为员工提供良好发展机会,达成双赢。员工的职业生涯管理是企业进行战略性人力资源管理的主要手段，然而成功的范例都会成为鲜现的个案。文章从心理契约的角度，分析了雇佣双心理互动的过程，提出根据心理契约的演变进行生涯管理的新思路。

Section 4C (Chinese) Rural Migrant Workers in China: Theory

[1] "Modification and Apllication of Dual Economic Model: An Analysis and Explanation of the Demand and Supply of the Rural Surplus Labor"
二元经济模型的修正与应用：农村剩余劳动力转移的供求分析与解释
Yongjun Chen (陈甬军), Renmin University of China, China (中国人民大学商学院副院长)

Abstract: The development of a two-sector economic theory points out the direction of transferring extra rural labor forces for developing countries. However, restrictions of the conditions limit its application to developing countries. This paper reviews the two-sector economic theory, and establishes supply and demand functions of the rural labor forces. The changes in influencing factors determine the relative position of the supply and demand curves, and determine the equilibrium transferring quantity of the rural labor forces at any point in time. The curve linking the equilibriums at each period describes the long-run transferring pattern of extra rural labor forces. We use this model to explain the transferring rules and trends of labor force in the Occident, Latin American, LDCs, and China respectively. The policy implication is that changing the influencing factors can shift the positions of supply and demand function, and determines the equilibrium transferring quantity of labor force, and in term, achieve the goal of transferring rural extra labor force quickly and continually.

摘要：二元经济理论的产生为发展中国家农村剩余劳动力转移指出了方向，而其在假设条件上的局限，制约了该理论在发展中国家的普遍应用。文中通过对二元经济理论的述评，在放宽假设条件的基础上，设立了供给函数、需求函数，即农村剩余劳动力的供给量、需求量与其相应的影响因素之间存在的对应关系；影响因素的变动决定供给曲线、需求曲线的位置，进而决定某一时点农村剩余劳动力的均衡转移数量；每一时点供求均衡决定的转移数量的连线，形成了描述农村剩余劳动力长期转移模式的模型。还应用这个供求分析模型分别解释了西欧北美发达国家、拉丁美洲发展中国家、中国劳动力转移的不同规律和趋势。其政策含义为：通过改变影响因素，进而改变供给曲线、需求曲线的位置，确定均衡劳动力转移数量，达到推动农村剩余劳动力快速持续转移的目的。

[2] "Trade Unions in China's Labor Market: Confrontational or Cooperative"
工会在中国劳动力市场中所扮的角色：对抗还是合作?
Cheng Wang (王诚), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China (中国社会科学院经济研究所《经济研究》副主编、编辑部主任)

Abstract: A core employment market based on modern information and communications technology (ICT) and human resources (HR) management can fundamentally overcome the shortcomings of traditional employment market, in which the problems of imbalance in the relationship between employers and employees are antagonistically alleviated by independent trade unions and other similar means. Core employment means the portion of total employment closely related to modern entrepreneurial innovation —— the employment of directly or indirectly aiding in conducting, promoting, protecting and expanding innovation with entrepreneurship. The severe industrial conflicts existing currently in China can probably be resolved by economic and social measures other than confrontational trade unions, as long as the efforts are made in an expansion of core employment by the government, enterprises and individuals.

摘要：一个建立在现代信息通讯技术和人力资源管理上的核心就业市场可以从根本上解决传统就业市场的缺陷。传统就业市场上雇主与雇员之间关系的不平等问题由独立的行业协会和类似方式来敌对的方式来缓解。核心就业市场是指整个就业中与现代企业家创新密切相关的那一部分，即，直接或间接为进行、推动、保护、扩展企业家创新提供辅助作用的就业。当前中国存在的严重的工人与雇主之间的矛盾，只要是由政府、企业和个人通过扩展核心就业市场，就有可能可以通过对抗性质的行业协会以外的经济、社会方式解决。

[3] "The Estimation of Human Capital in Chinese Cities"
中国城市人力资本的估算
Pingfang Zhu (朱平芳), Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China (上海社会科学院)
Dafeng Xu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, China

Abstract: The popular methods about the estimation of human capital can't be directly used to Chinese cities. That's mainly because we have no sufficient data those methods need. Following Caser B. Mulligan and Xavier Sala-Martin (1995), we develop a new method to estimate the human capital in Chinese cities. The notion of human capital unit is explicitly defined in this paper. Some assumptions about human capital unit an production technology are also made. We get the human capital estimation of Chinese cities. Our estimation shows that human capital in different cities in China is different between 1990-2003. Human capital in each city increases though there are some fluctuation. The increasing standard error of human capital implies that there are some increasing disparity of human capital in Chinese's cities. This can be confirmed by the positive relation between the growth of human capital and its initial level. The estimation of human capital is plausible.

摘要：本文针对中国城市人力资本估算中的困难，在Caser B. Mulligan和and Xavier Sala-Martin（1995）关于人力资本估算思想的启发下，明确提出单位人力资本的概念。在对单位人力资本和技术进行适当假设的基础上，设计了一个可实现的、人力资本估算框架，估算出单位人力资本在中国各城市所能得到的实际工资水平，并在此基础上估算了中国地级以上城市的人力资本，得到了中国各城市1990-2003年的人均人力资本。本文对中国各城市的人均人力资本的估算表明，各城市的人力资本虽然出现小的波动，但是总体而言，都呈现出增长的态势。不同城市的人均人力资本的大小是不同的。对中国各城市人均人力资本标准差的计算表明，中国各城市之间的人力资本表现出了较大的差异性，并且这种差异性随时间的推移在扩大。初始的人力资本与人力资本的增长率具有争相的关系也对此提供了一个统计解释。对文中估算的人力资本的检验表明，本文所得到的人力资本具有较大的合理性。

December 17, 2006

Section 5 (English) Keynote Session III: China's Labor Market and Public Policy: Current Issues (II)

[1] "Population and Labor Mobility: Some Conceptual Issues with reference to China"
人口与劳动力流动：一些概念问题及有关中国的情况
Yew-Kwang Ng (黄有光), Monash University, Australia (澳大利亚蒙纳士大学)

[2] "Education and Other Treatments in China: What Pays? What Does Not Pay?"
中国的教育以及其他因素：那些对收入有影响？那些对收入没有影响?
Junsen Zhang (张俊森), Chinese University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China (香港中文大学)

[3] "The Segmentation of China's Social Security Programs and Labor Mobility"
中国社会保障制度分割与劳动力流动
Xuejin Zuo (左学金), Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China (上海社会科学院常务副院长、经济研究所所长)

Section 6A (English) Labor Markets of OECD Countries (II)

[1] "The Economic Determinants of Ethnic Assimilation"
民族同化中的经济决定因素
Carmel Ullman Chiswick, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA (美国伊利诺大学芝加哥校区)

Abstract: Expanding on the concept of ethnic human capital, the paper distinguishes between cultural assimilation compatible with persistent ethnic groups and assimilation through intermarriage and other mechanisms that blur distinctions and lead to the disappearance of ethnic identities. Economic determinants of “successful” and “disadvantaged” group outcomes are shown to be sensitive to the relationship between ethnic and general human capital, especially with regard to externalities in the processes by which they are formed. The role of income transfer regimes tied to ethnic group membership is also considered.

摘要：本文扩展了少数民族人力资本的概念，区分了两个同化概念，即与持久存在的少数民族团体相容的文化同化以及通过相互通婚使特性模糊、导致少数民族身份消失的其他机制所产生的同化。决定“成功”和“处于劣势地位”团体的经济因素，对少数民族和一般人力资本之间的关系很敏感，尤其是相对于那些在过程中所形成的外部性而言。本文也考虑了与少数民族团体身份有关联的收入转移制度的作用。
（宋晓军 译）
[2] "Using a P90/P10 Ratio to Measure Inequality Trends with the Public Use Current Population Survey: A View from Inside the Census Bureau Vault"
通过P90/P10 比来衡量收入差距趋势：公用CPS普查数据和人口普查局内部数据的比较分析
Richard V. Burkhauser, Cornell University
Shuaizhang Feng (冯帅章) , Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, China (上海财经大学)

Abstract: Time-inconsistency problems related to top coding in the public use March Current Population Survey (CPS) have lead some researchers interested in measuring trends in United States wages and salaries, labor earnings and income inequality to use the ratio of the 90th and 10th percentile of these distributions (P90/P10) to infer changes in the entire distribution. With data from both the public use and internal March CPS data files (1976-2001), we show that using a P90/P10 ratio with public use CPS data (even a series that includes Census provided cell means) does not completely avoid the problem of time-inconsistency, especially for those interested in income inequality trends. Using internal CPS data files, we create consistent cell mean values for all top-coded public use CPS values.The inequality trends we estimate using these adjusted public use CPS values closely track inequality trends we estimate using internal CPS values.However, when we estimate long-term inequality trends based on P90/P10 and Gini values, using our adjusted public use CPS data, we show that their trends are significantly different. Hence, researchers should be cautious in making inference about changes in the entire distribution based on changes in two points of that distribution.

摘要：由于Current Population Survey (CPS)每年三月的公用普查数据中对极高收入数据的代码处理引起的不同年份的数据不一致现象使得部分关注美国工资、劳动所得、收入不平等的研究人员使用这些数据的P90/P10指标来分析整个分布的变化趋势。这里所谓的P90/P10指标的定义是处于分布的90%与10% 的比值。通过同时使用公用版本和内部版本的CPS从1976年至2000年的每年三月的普查数据，我们在本文中说明从公用版本的CPS数据计算得到的P90/P10指标，即使是考虑了人口普查局提供的区间均值，并不能完全避免不同年份的数据不一致的现象，特别是对于研究有关收入不平等的研究。利用CPS内部版数据，我们计算得到了与经过代码处理后的公用版对应的区间均值。经过考虑这些区间均值后的公用版CPS数据计算得到的收入不平等趋势与使用内部版CPS的结果十分吻合。但是，当我们以经过考虑区间均值后的公用版CPS数据测算测算收入不平等时，P90/P10指标和吉尼系数反映的长期趋势显著不同。因此，研究人员在用分布上两个点的变化来对整个分布的变化作推断时应该十分谨慎。

[3] "American Exceptionalism in New Light: A Comparison of Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in the Nordic Countries, the United Kingdom and the United States"
重观美国社保制度的独特性：对北欧、英联邦和美国代际收入流动性的比较研究
Markus Jantti, Abo Akademi University
Bernt Bratsberg, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research
Knut Roed, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research
Oddbjorn Raaum, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research
Robin Haylor, University of Warwick
Eva Osterbacka, Abo Akademi University
Anders Bjorkund, SOFI and IZA Bonn
Tor Eriksson (tor@asb.dk), Aarhus Business School, Denmark (丹麦奥尔胡斯商学院)

Abstract: We develop methods and employ similar sample restrictions to analyse differences in intergenerational earnings mobility across the United States, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Finalnd, Norway and Sweden. We examine earnings mobility among pairs of fathers and sons as well as fathers and daughters using both mobility matrices and regression and correlation coefficients. Our results suggest that all countries exhibit substantial earnings persistence across generations, but with statistically significant differences across countries. Mobility is lower in the U.S. than in the U.K., where it is lower gaain compared to the Nordic countries. Persistence is greatest in the tails of the distributions and tends to be particularly high in the upper tails; though in the U.S. this is reversed with a particularly high likelihood that sons of the poorest fathers will remain in the lowest earnings quintile. This is a challenge to the popular notion of "American exceptionalism". The U.S. also differs from the Nordic countries in its very low likelihood that sons of the highest earners will show downward "long-distance" mobility into the lowest earnings quintile. In this, the U.K. is more similar to the U.S.

摘要：我们采用了各种方法，在类似的样本条件下比较了美国、英国、丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞士等国的代际收入变动差异。通过转移矩阵、回归和相关系数，同时考察了父子间以及父女间的收入变动情况。结果显示：尽管所有国家在本质上都存在着代际间收入的延续性，但国家间的不同在统计上却是显著的。美国的变动率低于英国，英国又低于北欧。延续性的分布在所有分布中尾部最厚，尤其是上尾部分显得特别高；但美国的情况却相反，对于那些最低收入者而言，其儿子的收入同样落在最低收入那一分位的可能性异常高。这一发现对于被广泛认可的美国例外论而言，是一个挑战。此外，在美国最高收入者的儿子收入出现大幅下降以至落入最低收入分度的可能性非常小。这方面，英国的情况比较接近美国。
(林晶 译)

Section 6B (English) Special Session on China’s Statistical Methods

[1] "Chinese Statistical Methods and Data Collection"
中国的统计方法和数据收集
Xianchun Xu (许宪春), National Bureau of Statistics, China (中国国家统计局副局长)

[2] "Industrial Statistical Methodology in China"
中国工业统计调查方法
Xiaohui Wang (王晓辉), National Bureau of Statistics, China (中国国家统计局)

Section 6C (Chinese) Rural Migrant Workers in China: Empirical Studies

[1] "The Migration in the Urbanization Process of China,"
中国城市化过程中的人口迁移研究
Pei Li (李培), Renmin University of China (中国人民大学)

Abstract: Since 1978, China has experienced a rapid and unprecedented process of urbanization, created by the history’ largest flow of rural-urban migration in the world. This paper illustrates some characteristics of the migration in China. Meanwhile an econometric model which is based on the Todaro Model and on the strength of Chinese provincial panel data from 1992 to 2004 about the very migrants is presented. The results show that the expanding income gap between urban and rural China has performed as a big barrier for the migration flow. However the conclusions for the influence exerted by the new job positions and the unemployment are in line with the implication of Todaro Model except the statistic insignificance of unemployment. In addition some countermeasures are also put forward for dealing with the current migration problem in China.

摘要：改革开放以来随着中国城市化水平的迅速提高，城乡人口迁移问题逐渐成为人们关注的焦点。本文对中国人口迁移的特征进行了描述，并以Todaro模型为理论依据，利用1992-2004年中国各省人口城乡迁移的面板数据，构建了中国人口城乡迁移的计量模型。结果显示城乡收入差距的扩大已经成为影响中国人口城乡迁移的关键因素，迁移人口对城市内部新增加的就业岗位与失业规模与Todaro模型预测的结果一致。但城市失业规模对农村人口城乡迁移决策的影响统计上并不显著。针对以上问题形成的原因，提出了今后解决中国城乡人口迁移问题的相关对策。

[2] "An Empirical Study on the Employment of Rural Migrant Workers and Employment Promotion Situations: The Case of Beijing,"
农民工就业与就业促进问题实证研究：以北京市为例
Xuejing Lv (吕学静), Capital University of Economics and Business, China (首都经贸大学劳动经济学院劳动与社会保障系主任)

[3] "Wage Forming Mechanism in the Market Transition Process of China (1993-2004): Evidence from the Panel Data,"
中国市场转型过程中的工资形成机制（1993-2004年）— 面板数据的实证研究
Guangjie Ning (宁光杰), Nankai University, China (南开大学)

Abstract: Using the panel data of 31 provinces from 1993 to 2004, this paper analyzes the factors influencing wage change in China. During the process of marketing, the link between wage and factors such as inflation, productivity and unemployment rate is strengthened. But there still exists scope for further development of labor market, as the relationship between the wage and productivity is not strong enough, the wage’s response to the unemployment is lagged. The wage forming mechanism of different regions differs, and the econometric results show that contrary to people’s common imagine, the eastern areas’ wage marketing is not satisfying.

摘要: 本文使用从1993到2004年31个省的面板数据，分析了影响中国工资变化的要素。在市场化的进程中，工资与通货膨胀率、生产力、失业率等要素之间的关联得到了加强。但是，由于工资和生产力之间的关联度还不够大，使得工资对失业的反映出现滞后，因此劳动力市场仍然存在进一步发展的空间。不同的地区有不同的工资形成机制，计量经济学的分析结果显示：与人们的普遍看法不同，东部地区的工资市场化还没有达到让人满意的程度。
(李响 译)

[4] "Discrimination against Peasant Labor Have Little Effect on the Reduction of Urban Poverty: A Discussion Based on a Heterogeneous Rural-Urban Migration Model"
对农民工的歧视性政策无助于减少城市贫困：基于异质人口流动模型的讨论
Haiyun Ye (叶海云), Shandong University, China (香港中文大学)

Abstract: Peasant labor has made a great contribution to cities’ economic development. It is an apparent fact that any city cann’t prosper without them. But in order to diminish urban poverty many cities discriminate against them. This paper study peasant’s migration preferences and choices, and find that if there are huge rural-urban income gaps, under market economic conditions, policies of discrimination not only cann’t discourage peasants from making a living in city, but also cann’t drive poor peasant labor out of city, and even make some of them poorer in city than in countryside, and so aggravate urban poverty.
摘要：农民工对城市的经济发展做出了巨大的贡献，城市离不开他们已是不争的事实。然而，许多城市为了缓解城市贫困对农民工采取了歧视性政策。本文研究了农民的迁徙偏好与选择，发现在市场经济和城乡收入差距很大的情况下，歧视性政策既不能挡住求生存的农民进城，无法将贫困的农民工排出城市，甚至可能使一部分人比农村时更贫困，从而使得城市的贫困问题更加尖锐。

Section 7 (English) Keynote Session IV: Theoretical Labor Economics and Public Policy (I)

[1] "Labor Retrenchment Laws and Regulations: A Theoretical Investigation with Special Reference to Developing Countries"
用工收缩法律法规：发展中国家情况的理论探讨
Kaushik Basu, Cornell University, USA (美国康奈尔大学，Social Choice and Welfare主编)

[2] "Designing Optimal Unemployment Insurance"
失业保险政策的最优设计
Bertil Holmlund, Uppsala University, Sweden (瑞典乌普萨拉大学，欧洲劳动经济学会前主席)

[3] "Beneficial Brain Drain"
有益的人才外流
Oded Stark, Universities of Klagenfurt, Bonn, and Vienna; Warsaw University; ESCE Economic and Social Research Center, Cologne and Eisenstadt (德国波恩大学，Handbook of Populaton and Family Economics 联合主编)

Section 8A (English) Asia Labor Market

[1] "Globalization and Wage Inequality in Taiwan Manufacturing: Evidence from Quantile Regression Analysis"
全球化与台湾制造业工资差距：分位数回归分析的实证研究
Chien-Liang Chen (陈建良), Chi Nan University, Taiwan, China (台湾暨南大学)
Chung-Ming Kuan, Academia Sinica, Taiwan, China

Abstract: Aside from the traditional aggregate data analysis in the existing literature, this study use micro data to examine the impacts of globalization on wage inequality focusing on various marginal effects derived from import, export and outward investment with respect to trade partners of different levels of development. Based on the estimation of quantile regression, the empirical results show that the effects of globalization on wage inequality indeed vary in accordance with types of trade partners as well as the conditional distribution of wages. It is suggested that macro aspect “wage ratio” equation cannot fully explore the effects of internationalization on wage inequality. Meanwhile, neglect of outward investment in the analysis of wage structure under globalization may result in omitted variable problem.

摘要：有别于现有文献中的传统的宏观数据分析，本研究利用微观数据检验了在与不同发展水平的贸易伙伴进行进出口贸易和对外投资时全球化对工资不平等的边际影响。根据对分位数回归的估算，全球化对工资不平等的影响的确受贸易伙伴类型以及工资的条件概率分布的影响。因此，仅仅研究宏观层面的“工资比”方程并不能完全体现全球化对工资不平等的影响。同时，在分析全球化下工资结构的时候忽略对外投资可能会导致变量缺失问题。
（陈凡 译）

[2] "The ‘Twin-Engines’ of Growth in Singapore: Employment Linkages and Structrual Changes in Manufacturing and Services"
新加坡经济成长的两个“发动机”：制造与服务业的就业联系和结构调整
Shandre M. Thangavelu, Singapore National University, Singapore (新加坡国立大学)

[3] "Market Segmentation and Full-time and Part-time Wage Differentials in Taiwan"
台湾劳动市场区隔与全职和兼职工作工资差异之研究
Mei Hsu (徐美), National Taipei University, Taiwan, China (国立台北大学)

Abstract: Unlike traditional studies dichotomizing labor force participation, this work extends the earlier researches of part-time employment and analyzes the divergent work status among female employment “not working”, “working part-time”and “working full-time”to account for the full-time/part-time wage differentials within the two-stage switching regression framework. One of the main research purposes is to test the hypothesis of market segmentation of full-time/part-time by taking account of discontinuity in female employment.

This research documents that the discontinuity in female employment has a significant negative impact on female labor force participation and wages. If women have more number of children and have ever separated from their jobs due to childbirth and needs for childcare and elderly care, then they are less likely to be full-timers and have lower wage rate.

In addition, the upward-sloping wage profiles of full-time/part-time employees in professional occupation evidence that the returns to human capital investment of full-time/part-time employees in professional occupation are higher than their counterparts in other occupations. The percentage of valuation difference in characteristics between full-time and part-time employees evaluated by employers (discrimination) is higher than the percentage difference in endowment between full-timers and part-timers in professional and skilled occupations. This result supports that the hypothesis of market segmentation for part-timers in professional and skilled occupations and signifies the importance of counting for the discontinuity in female employment and wage functions.

摘要：延伸过去兼职就业的研究，本研究分析女性就业中“不参与劳动”，“兼职参与”和“全职参与”三种不同的工作就业状态。与过去研究参与劳动市场传统二分法的计量模型不同，在本文中以二阶段转换模型区分和解释兼职工作者和全职工作者的工资差异。主要的研究目的是在考虑妇女非连续性就业下，对于劳动市场中的兼职和全职工作者进行劳动市场区隔假说之检测。

研究发现妇女非连续性就业的形态对于劳参率和工资有显著不利的影响。小孩个数较多且曾因生育离职，或是因照顾小孩和老人而离职的妇女，较不易成为全职工作者，且工资率较低。在专业性职业中，全职和兼职工作者人力资本的投资报酬率较其他职业为高。且在专业性和技术性的职业中，雇主对于全职和兼职工作者不同特性的评价差距，解释了大部分全职和兼职工作者之工资差异。因此，实证结果支持在专业性和技术性的职业中，对于兼职工作存有市场区隔的假说，此也显示出在估计全职和兼职工作者之工资时，因考虑到妇女非连续性就业的状况。

Section 8B (English) China's Labor Market (II): Poverty and Inequality

[1] "Does Inequality matter in China? An Empirical Enquiry"
收入不平等对中国是问题吗？一个实证分析
Lina Song (宋丽娜), University of Nottingham, UK (诺丁汉大学)

[2] "Education, Human Capital and Regional Economic Differentials: An Empirical Test Using China's Provincial Matched-Pair Data"
教育、人力资本和区域经济差异：一个采用中国省级配对数据的实证分析
Xianguo Yao (姚先国), Zhejiang University, China (浙江大学公共管理学院院长)

Abstract: Using provincial matched-pair panel data, this paper focuses on human capital measured by average schooling level and its effects on regional income differentials, and investigates a comparative analysis between urban and rural areas. The results show that education does play a role in the regional average income level and has an increasing effect comparing with 1980s, but the effect seems limited to explain the huge income differentials across regions. The estimated social return to education in rural areas is much higher than that in urban areas, which is consistent with the fact that rural labor market is more market-oriented than urban labor market. Furthermore, several explanations of the results are presented.

摘要：采用省级配对面板数据，本文研究以人均就学水平为衡量的人力资本和它对区域收入差距的影响，同时就此问题比较城镇与农村地区的不同。我们的结果显示教育的确对区域人均收入水平有影响，并且相对1980年代，其作用不断增强。但，这一作用在解释区域之间的巨大收入差异方面的作用十分有限。我们测算出的农村教育的社会回报率远远高于城镇，这一点与农村劳动力市场比城镇的劳动力市场更加市场化是一致的。此外，本文还对上述结果给出一系列解释。

[3] "Migration and Urban Poverty and Inequality in China"
迁移与中国的城市贫困与不平等
Dewen Wang (王德文), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China (中国社会科学院)
Albert Park, University of Michigan, USA
Fang Cai, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China

Abstract: Massive domestic migration in China has attracted a lot of public concern about the living status of migrants in urban areas. Using data from recent surveys of migrants and local residents in 12 cities in 2004 and 2005, this paper examines how inclusion of migrants influences measurements of urban poverty and inequality, and also compares how other indicators of well-being differ for migrants and local residents. Contrary to previous studies that report that income poverty of migrant households is 1.5 times that of local resident households, we find relatively small differences in the poverty rates of migrants and local residents. Although the hourly wages of migrants are much lower than those of local residents, migrant households have lower dependency ratios and migrants have higher labor force participation rates and work longer hours. Including migrants does increase somewhat measures of urban income inequality. Significant differences between migrants and local residents are found for non-income welfare indicators such as housing conditions and access to social insurance programs.

摘要：中国境内的大规模人口流动引发公众对于城镇流动人口的生存状况的广泛关注。采用2004年和2005年对12个城市的流动及常驻人口的调查数据，本文检验考虑流动人口对于测算城镇贫困和收入不均的影响。本文同时还在其他一些福利指标上比较流动人口与常住人口的状况。与之前有关研究得出的流动人口户收入贫困率是常住人口户的1.5倍的结论不同，我们发现这两者之间的差距相对较小。虽然流动人口的小时工资比常驻人口的要低的多，流动人口需要承担的照料老人、孩子的比率更小，参与劳动力市场的比率更高，工作时间更长。考虑流动人口并不会增加城镇收入不均的指标。在非收入福利指标方面以及社保覆盖方面，我们发现流动人口与常驻人口之间差异较大。
Section 8C (Chinese) China's Labor Market (III): Income

[1] "Rural Income Disparity and Human Capital Investment" (农民的收入差距与人力资本投资研究)
Weidong Jin (靳卫东), Nanjing University, China (南京大学)

Abstract: Income disparity can influence human capital investment, and human capital investment can influence income disparity too. In the long term, with the minimum consumption restriction and the investment cost, peasant’s human capital investment has two steady balances and one unsteady balance, and this makes the disparity augment gradually. With the influence of income disparity on the human capital investment, the increase of public finance expense can’t eliminate poverty, and it is the essential track to eliminate poverty and decrease income disparity that every peasant’s human capital investment is exceed ‘the critical minimum threshold’.

摘要：收入差距会影响到人力资本投资，同时人力资本投资也会影响到收入差距的变化。在长期内，考虑到最低消费约束与投资成本，我国农民的人力资本投资存在着两个稳定均衡和一个非稳定均衡，这使得农民的人力资本差距和收入差距逐渐增大。由于收入差距对人力资本投资的影响，公共财政支出的增加不一定能消除贫困，使所有农民的人力资本投资都超过“最小临界门槛”才是最终解决贫困和收入分配问题的根本途径。

[2] "Skill-biased Technical change and Widening of Wage Structure"
技术进步的技能偏向性与工资结构宽化
Zhong Wang (王忠), South China Normal University, China (华南师范大学)

Abstract: Based on the analysis of the impact of skill-bias due to technical progress on the wage structure, this research studies the labor market situation in China. Using both micro and macro data, statistical method and wage function are measured to study the impact of the technical rising due to education on wage structure and the Gini coefficient among working people with the same education level. The conclusion based on this study shows that skill-bias raises wage inequality in China. But what is different from developed countries is that the less skilled labor’s wage is increasing instead of decreasing. The main reason for expanding wage inequality is that increasing rate of wage of skilled labors is higher than that of less skilled ones. The policy implications suggest that improving low skilled labors’ skill is an efficient method to reduce the wage inequality.
(Translated by Li WU)
摘要：本文在对技术进步的技能偏向性对工资结构影响的分析基础上，利用宏观统计数据和微观调查数据，用统计方法和工资方程，研究中国技术进步的技能偏向性对就业人员的工资结构的影响，并计算出教育的技能升水和同等受教育程度就业人员收入的基尼系数。研究结果表明，中国的技术进步的技能偏向性使得工资结构出现宽化现象，但是与发达国家不同的是，中国低技能劳动力的工资是在上升的，收入状况没有恶化，工资结构的宽化主要来源于高技能劳动力的工资上升速度超过低技能劳动力的工资的上升速度。研究的政策含义是为了缩小中国的收入不平等，迅速提高低技能劳动力的技能是一个很好的途径。

[3] "Wage, Subjective Utility and Rural Labor Migration"
工资报酬，效用感觉与农村劳动力流动
Xingxiang Zhang (张兴祥), The School of Economics, Xiamen University, China (厦门大学经济学院)
December 18, 2006

Section 9 (English) Keynote Session V: Applied Labor Economics (I)

[1] "Computer Usage, Destination Language Proficiency and Earnings of Natives and Immigrants"
当地及移民人群中电脑普及率、语言熟练度与收入间的关系研究
Barry R. Chiswick, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA and IZA-Institute for the Study of Labor, Germany (美国伊利诺大学芝加哥校区经济系主任)
Paul W. Miller, University of Western Australia, Australia

Abstract: This paper uses the concept of a computer as a public good within the household to model and estimate the demand for computers at home. It also investigates the determinants, and consequences for earnings, of computer use. The equations are estimated using data on the native born and immigrants from the 2001 Census of Population and Housing in Australia.

The multivariate analyses show that recent arrivals are more likely to use computers than the Australian born. The data suggests a high degree of favorable selection in migration as the level of computer use in Australia is much higher than in most of the countries that Australia’s immigrants come from. Those with a higher permanent income (education, household assets) are more likely to have a computer at home, but there is no effect of transitory income (unemployment).Immigrants who are more proficient in English are also more likely to use a computer. The relation between age and computer use is strongly influenced by cohort effects.

Using a computer at home is associated with about 7 percent and 13 percent higher earnings for native born and foreign born men, respectively. For the immigrants, the effects of schooling and English language proficiency on earnings are greater among those who use a computer at home. This suggests complementarity in the labor market. The use of a computer is shown to be a way the foreign born can increase the international transferability of their pre-immigration skills, a finding that has implications for immigrant assimilation policies.

摘要：本文将电脑看作家庭中的公共物品，以此来模拟和估计家庭对电脑的需求。同时也研究了电脑使用率的决定因素及其对收入的影响。文中的方程是我们利用澳大利亚2001年人口和住房普查中本国居民和移民的数据来估计的。

多变量分析表明近期的外来者相对于澳大利亚本土出生的公民更可能多的使用电脑。数据显示了迁移中存在着很高程度的有利性选择，这是因为澳大利亚的电脑使用水平远远高于大多数移民所来自国家的水平。那些有相对高永久收入（教育，家庭资产）的居民家中更可能拥有电脑，但是暂时性收入（失业）并不产生影响。英语熟练程度更高的移民也更可能使用电脑。群效应对年龄和电脑的使用之间的关系影响很大。

家庭电脑的使用与7%的本国出生男性收入上升和13%外国出生男性的收入上升呈正相关。对移民来说，在使用家用电脑的群体中，教育和英语熟练程度对收入的影响要更大。这体现了劳动力市场的互补性特征。电脑的使用对移民来讲，是一种增加移民前技能的国际转化能力的途径。该发现对移民吸收政策的制定有意义。
(宋晓军 译)

[2] "Neglected Topics in the Analysis of Welfare Duration in the West"
西方在研究福利使用时间时所忽视的领域
Robert Gregory, Australian National University, Australia (澳大利亚国立大学，Economic Record 主编)

Abstract: This explores the analysis of time spent on welfare among lone parents in Australia. Most analysis looks at spell duration. This talk shows that this is too narrow a focus for a proper understanding of the interactions of welfare and work.

摘要：本讲讨论有关澳大利亚单亲家长福利使用时间的研究。大多数这类研究分析使用时间的长度。本讲指出这样的研究对于准确理解福利与工作的相互作用过于狭隘。

[3] "Gender, Ethnic Identity and Work"
性别、民族认同与工作
Amelie Constant,IZA Bonn, DIW Berlin and Georgetown University
Liliya Gataullina, IZA Bonn
Klaus F. Zimmermann, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), DIW Berlin, University of Bonn, Free University of Berlin and CEPR London (IZA 所长，Journal of Population Economics 和 Economic Policy 前主编，Journal of Population Economics 总编(Editor-in-chief)，Economic Bulletin 主编，DIW-Wochenbericht 主编，DIW-Vierteljahrshefte 主编)

Abstract: The European Union’s strategy to raise employment is confronted with very low work participation among many minority ethnic groups, in particular among immigrants.This study examines the potential of immigrants’ identification with the home and host country ethnicity to explain that deficit. It introduces a two-dimensional understanding of ethnic identity, as a combination of commitments to the home and host cultures and societies, and links it to the labour market participation of immigrants. Using unique German survey data, the paper identifies marked gender differences in the effects of ethnic identification on the probability to work controlling for a number of other determinants. While ethnically assimilated immigrant men outperform those who are ethnically separated and marginalized, they are not different from those with openness to both cultures. Assimilated immigrant women do better than those separated and marginalized, but those who develop an attachment to both cultures clearly fare the best.

摘要：欧盟有关提高就业的战略受到很多少数族裔，特别是移民，很低的劳动力市场参与率的挑战。本文通过检验移民对来源国与目的国族裔的认同程度的潜在可能来解释以上缺失。我们提出以对来源国与目的国文化和社群两个纬度定义的族裔认同概念，并把这一概念与移民参与劳动力市场相联系。利用独特的来自德国的数据，本研究明确显示，当其他因素不变的情况下，两性之间在族裔认同对工作决策影响的有着明显区别。对于男性移民来说，族裔相同比族裔不同或族裔边缘化的情况下参与劳动力市场的表现更好，但与男性移民对两地的文化同时认同的情况相同。对于女性移民来说，族裔认同比族裔不同或族裔边缘化的情况下参与劳动力市场的表现更好，但与女性移民对两地的文化同时认同的情况相比，后者表现最佳。

Section 10A (English) China's Labor Market and Public Policy: Current Issues (III)

[1] "Fiscal Decentralization, Policy Holdup, and Rural Labor Mobility: An Analysis of Chinese Rural Governments' Incentives to Promote Undocumented Labor Mobility"
财政权利下放、政策制约与农村劳动力的流行性：中国农村政府促使无官方记录劳动力流动的动机分析
Yiu Por Chen, DePaul University, USA (美国德保罗大学)

Abstract: What are the impacts of fiscal decentralization on local governance? The Chinese central government implemented partial fiscal decentralization in the 1980s by assigning some taxation rights to rural governments. I examine the incentives this created for rural governments to promote market development through undocumented labor mobility, and the impact this mobility had on later policy change. I argue that fiscal decentralization not only changed the structure of the contractual relationship between the central government and rural government but also changed the preference of agents. Fiscal decentralization is an incomplete contract at rural government levels. This incompleteness created a "policy holdup problem" that had two important aspects: it increased the governance cost of the central government and the fiscal need of local government. This policy holdup had an effect on macro-institutional change when a conflict of interest between these two levels of government arose.

My gravity model shows that while the central government was trying to restrict labor mobility, rural governments induced a Hecksher-Ohlin type inter-provincial labor migration for their Township Village Enterprises development. I also find the incentive to promote (or restrain) the undocumented rural-rural labor mobility was strongest at the village (lowest) level, moderate at the town (middle) level, and very weak at the provincial (highest) level of fiscal decentralization, depending they are at the origin (or destination). The results suggest that the policy holdup (collusion to induce labor flow) among rural level governments that resulted from fiscal decentralization was used as a renegotiation device with the central government, which eventually changed the formal policy on labor control for their benefit. This exercise helps resolve the dichotomous views on local level governments' incentives to promote factor mobility (helping hand or grabbing hand), by focusing on institutional arrangement, local level incentives, and local factor endowment. Thus this study has strong implication on the institutional change that lead to labor agglomerations at rural areas.

摘要：财政下放对城乡政府的冲击为何？上世纪八十年代，中国政府通过赋予城乡政府一定的征税权利，从而实现了一定程度的财政下放。在本论文中，检验了城乡政府通过非正式的劳动力迁移来促进市场发展的动机，以及这些劳动力的迁移对尔后政策改变的影响等。我认为，财政下放不仅改变了中央和地方政府间的契约关系结构，而且还改变了理性人的偏好。同时，对于城乡政府而言则是一个不完全的契约。这种不完整性造成了“政策停滞问题”。不仅增加了中央政府的管理费用；同时也增加了地方政府对财政的需求。当两级政府间的利益发生冲突时，政策停顿问题将影响宏观制度的转变。

本文说明当中央政府试图限制劳动力迁移时，地方政府便利用Hecksher-Ohlin类型的隐藏农村劳动力转移来为保障他们的乡镇企业的发展。文章还发现在行政村及以下级别的行政单位中，这种促进（或限制）非正式劳动力从地方到地方迁移的动机是极其强烈的，而在乡镇级别（中级行政单位）则有所减缓，到了省及以上（最高的行政单位）则表现的很不明显。这些结果说明，由于财政下放，在地方所引起的政策停滞（促进劳动力的流动），是一种地方政府与中央政府的重新谈判机制，这也将最终改变中央政府基于自身利益而推出的劳动力控制政策。这篇论文着力分析了制度安排，地方级别激励，以及地方因素禀赋，从而解决了对地方政府促进因素流动（帮助之手或攫取之手）的分歧。因此，这篇文章的研究对因制度变化而引致的农村地区劳动力凝聚具有很强的政策建议。

[2] "Higher Education Expansion in China: Origins and Impacts"
中国高等教育扩张的起源及其影响
Yingyi Ma (马颖毅), Syracuse University, USA (美国雪城大学）

Abstract: This paper addresses one of the most recent and pressing issues in Chinese labor market: the large number of college graduates that directly results from the expansion of higher education initiated around the turn of the 21st century. I ask two questions: 1) what is the historical background of the expansion in higher education in China? 2) What are the difficulties China is now facing in the aftermath of this expansion?

Higher education expansion has occurred in many other countries, including the U.S and Japan, the advanced industrial country in the west and the east respectively. Knowing the origins and the impacts of higher education expansion in these countries, and in particular, the solutions they come up with to address the difficulties they once encountered, is much needed in the current understanding and policy making in the process of higher education expansion in China. This paper intends to provide the comparative contexts in our efforts to understand, and possibly to seek solutions for the problems resulting from the recent expansion in Chinese higher education.

摘要：本文关注的是中国劳动市场最紧迫的现象之一：始于世纪之交的高等教育扩张产生数量庞大的高校毕业生。着重讨论了两个问题：1）这次中国高等教育扩张的时代背景是什么？2）在扩张之后，中国正面对着哪些困难？包括西方和东方分别最发达的工业化国家，美国和日本都发生过高等教育的扩张。了解在这些国家高等教育扩张的起源和影响，尤其是他们在应对这个过程所遇到的问题时提出的解决方案，是理解中国高等扩张教育过程和制定政策所急需的。通过我们的工作，本文旨在提供一个比较的文本，以认识这次中国高等教育扩张所带来的问题，并可能的探索解决方法。
(鄢贤宁 译)

[3] "The 1993 EITC Expansion and Low-Skilled Single Mothers' Welfare Use Decision"
1993年EITC 项目扩张与低技能单亲母亲的福利使用决策
Hao Chyi (齐豪), Xiamen University, China (厦门大学王亚南经济研究院)

Section 10B (Chinese) China's Labor Market (IV): Employment

[1] "An Empirical Study on the Distributing Characteristics and Determinants of Job Vacancies: The Case of Beijing"
关于职位空缺分布特征及其决定因素的实证研究
Kuang Tang (唐鑛), Chongqing Technolgogy and Business University, China (重庆工商大学校长助理)

Abstract: The paper studies the distribution characteristics and determinants of job vacancies. The parameter estimation is based on the two-stage Tobit procedure. The main statistical results are as follows: There is a positive correlation between the hiring scale and job vacancy incidence, while there is a negative correlation between the qualification vacancy rate and the hiring scale. The higher the labor turnover rate in units, the higher the job vacancy incidences and the vacancy rates are. The 98.39% of institutions with prospects have labor needs, and 39.53% of units declining say they will hire new staff. After decomposing the Theil Index which reflects the gaps among vacancy rates, the differences among vacancy rates of different units are mainly from the inner causes of various groups, and the intergroup reasons are not main ones.

摘要：本文利用两阶段Tobit模型对国内的职位空缺统计数据进行了估计, 发现:用人机构的雇佣规模与职位空缺发生率正相关,而职位空缺率则与机构的雇佣规模呈现负相关的关系;机构员工流动率越高,职位空缺发生率以及职位空缺率越高;在景气指数为“看涨”的机构中98.39%表示存在用人需求,而景气指数为“看跌”的机构里只有39.53%的机构表示会招募新员工;在对反映职位空缺率差距水平的泰尔指数分解后发现机构职位空缺率之间的不同主要是由于各类分组的组内原因导致的,而组间的原因并不是主要的。

[2] "Anti-Poverty in Urban Areas and Promotion of a Harmonious Society
构建和谐社会与城镇反贫困
Biying Wu (吴碧英), Xiamen University, China (厦门大学王亚南经济研究院，厦门大学劳动经济研究中心主任)

[3] "The Labor Market for University Graduates and Higher Education in China"
我国的大学生就业市场与高等教育问题
Yuqun Yao (姚裕群), Renmin University of China, China (中国人民大学)

Section 10C (Chinese) China's Public Health Policy

[1] "Wealth, Education and Health Investment --- Evidence from Rural China"
财富、教育和健康投资 --- 对中国农村的研究
Bei Qin, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA
Jin Feng (封进), Fudan University, China (复旦大学)

Abstract: The service of the stocks of wealth, education and health are to some extent interchangeable. Those with lower wealth stock or less education uses more health capital in producing income, so that the rate of depreciation of heath of those people is higher and more medical expenditure incurred. Our empirical study is based on China Health and Nutrition Survey dataset for rural China and our findings are as follows: (1) Those with lower income or lower education have higher probability to be ill; (2) Conditional on being ill, the lower income or lower education person has higher medical burden (medical expenditure as a proportion of income) even though wealth effect and budget constrains exist; (3) the price elasticity of demand for medical care low, so the medical burden is increasing when the relative price of medical service going up and the group of lower income or lower education suffered more. Therefore, health insurance is needed to share the risk of illness and medical expenditure. On the other hand, more public investment on education is necessary for alleviating medical burden.

摘要：财富、教育和健康三项资本在一定程度上可以相互替换。财富较少、教育程度较低的人会更多地使用健康资本以获得收入，由此他们的健康折旧较高，从而医疗支出较高。我们用中国营养调查数据(CHNS)中的农村样本证实了这一点。具体地有以下几点结论（1）低收入和低教育的人有更高的患病概率；（2）在患病后，即使存在财富效应和预算约束，低收入和低教育的人的医疗负担（医疗支出/收入）远远高于高收入和高教育的人；（3）医疗需求缺乏价格弹性，在医疗相对价格不断上涨的情况下，医疗负担加重，低收入和低教育组受到的影响更大。因此，需要医疗保险以分担患病和医疗支出的风险；另一方面，增加对教育的公共投入有助于减轻医疗负担。

[2] "Innovations of Co-payment Health Care Mechanism Design in Xiamen Rural Area"
厦门新型农村合作医疗制度设计分析
Xiaowei Gong (龚小玮), Xiamen Economic Research Institute, China (厦门发改委经济研究所)

Abstract: Xiamen municipal government has made the experimental unit of new rural health insurance co-payment scheme since 1997. It had gone through various management levels operated by villages，towns, districts and commercial insurance. The government promoted new co-payment health insurance scheme in all around rural areas, and co-payment rate reached 80.63% in 2004. At all levels, the premium set by a local government increased 15 yuan per person per year from 30-38 yuan per person per year set up in 2005, to build a new rural co-payment health insurance system to cover heavy sickness for farmer’s households. This plan covered 616,364 rural people, and the coverage reached 93.89% of population. This paper is to try to build a model for co-payment health insurance in rural .areas.

摘要：厦门市自1997年开展以大病统筹为主的新型农村合作医疗制度工作，历经村办村管、镇办镇管、区办区管、商业保险几种模式，目前主要采用政府举办、商业运作的方式，即个人、集体、政府多方筹资，为农民购买基本住院医疗保险。这项工作取得了一定的成效，受到了农民的普遍欢迎。2005年厦门市新型农村合作医疗总参合人数达到61.63万人，覆盖93％的农村人口，是一项受农民欢迎、为政府分忧的社会工程。

[3] "Mobile Population, Disease and Public Health Policy"
人口流动、疾病与公共卫生政策
Jun Wang (王军), Nanjing Audit University, China (南京审计学院)

Abstract: This paper surveys the relationship between mobile population, disease and public health policy in a game-theoretic way. A standard result in the literature on transboundary externalities is that efficient public policies regulating such externalities will be adopted only if there is interjurisdictional coordination. Efficient policies can be adopted as a result of interregional treaties or mandated by a central government. We show that if there is perfect population mobility between the regions affected by the transboundary externalities, the efficient outcome is a Nash equilibrium of the policy game between regional authorities. This is true independently of what policies are available to the regional authorities. However, there may be more than one Nash equilibrium, so that policy coordination may be necessary in order to achieve the best equilibrium.

摘要：本文运用博弈论方法研究流动人口、疾病与公共卫生政策之间的关系。经济学文献认为，在跨境疾病传播存在的情况下，具有独立管辖权的区域为实施有效的公共卫生管理，就必须进行政策的协调。有效的管理可以体现为跨区域卫生协议的达成或通过一个中央政府的干预来实现。我们证明，无论区域采取何种政策，当区域间存在完全自由的人口流动时，有效率的结果是各区域政策博弈的一个纳什均衡解，而当出现多个纳什均衡的情况时，就有必要对各区域的政策进行协调以实现最佳的均衡。

Section 11 (English) Keynote Session VI: Applied Labor Economics (II)

[1] "Where the Boys No Longer Are: Recent Trends in USA College Enrollment Patterns"
男孩子不再来了：美国高校新生分布近期趋势
Patricia M. Anderson, Dartmouth College and NBER, USA (美国达特茅斯学院, 美国国家经济研究局，Journal of Human Resources 联合主编)

Abstract: Since the early 1970's, the fraction of college students who are male has dropped from about 56 percent to under 44 percent, leading the popular press to ask where the boys are.  This paper investigates the broad range of influences that appear to play a role in determining these trends.  An important component is the behavior of earlier cohorts of women, who enrolled less frequently than males when young, but later made up for this lack of higher education by enrolling at older ages.  At the same time, though, young female high school graduates are currently more likely than males to enroll in college.

摘要：从20世纪70年代早期开始，美国本科学生中的男生比例就从大约56%下降到44%以下。从而导致各个主流媒体对男生究竟到哪里去了发出疑问。本文对一系列可能对这一趋势产生作用的因素逐一分析。其中一个重要的因素可能是早一辈妇女的行为：她们年轻时就学虽然不如男性，但后来通过年纪稍大以后就学从而弥补了在接受高等教育方面相对男性的差距。而与之相应的当前情况是，年轻的女性高中毕业学生比她们的男同学更多的直接进入本科学习。

[2] "Impact of Demographic Change and Pension Reform on Household Savings in Urban China"
中国城市人口结构的改变、养老保险制度的改革及家庭蓄率的变化
Xin Meng, Australian National University, Australia (澳大利亚国立大学)

Abstract: The Chinese demographic structure is changing faster than most countries. Since 1979 the Chinese government has implemented a one-child policy. By the end of the 20th century, China had prematurely become an ageing society. In the next few decades China may have an inverted population pyramid, with more old than young people (Cai and Meng, 2003, Cai, Giles, and Meng, 2006).

The method of funding old age pensions in China is also rapidly changing and creating additional strains that are magnifying the problems associated with demographic ageing. Before economic reform, urban Chinese enjoyed a cradle to grave social security system. Everybody received an old age pension paid by government and funded by State/collectively owned enterprises (SOE). The pre-reform system involved the SOE’s transferring their profits to the state, and the state in turn financed the pension system. The economic reform which began in the early 1980s allowed state enterprises to keep their profits but, in return, they accepted responsibility for the pensions of their workers. Since the early 1990s, significant enterprise reform has brought changes to the labour market, which, in turn, has affected the way the old age pension can be financed. First, many SOEs have become loss-making firms and many have become bankrupt and unable to meet their pension responsibilities. Second, many workers are leaving the SOEs and by 2000 only 41 per cent of the total urban employment was in the SOE sector (World Bank, 1997; Selden and You, 1997; West, 1999; Feldstein, 1999; Meng, 2000; Whiteford, 2001; NSB, 2001; Murton, 2002; Zhao and Xu, 2002).

In response to these economic reform pressures the government in 1995 has started to move towards a new system of individual retirement savings accounts which involve enterprises and individuals directly contributing to a pension fund with the long run objective of a fully funded individual account system. However, the coverage of this system is quite low. According to the Ministry of Labour and Social Security, by 2002, only 45 per cent of the total employees are covered by the new public insurance system. (MOLSS, 2003). This is a remarkable change from a decade ago when all were covered. A survey of five large cities revealed the same picture and showed that in 2002 only 48 per cent of the sample was covered by the public pension insurance and less than 2 per cent had private pension insurance (Cai and Meng, 2003). To make things worse, the current public pension system is in a significant deficit. With a rapidly ageing population, many economists predict that the current public pension insurance system will not be sustainable (West, 1999; Feldstein, 1999; Whiteford, 2001; Murton, 2002; Zhao and Xu, 2002; Holland, 2002).

Pension reform in China has left many urban individuals with no old age income provision. Private saving, therefore, must become a significant source for retirement financing. The significant pension reform in the past ten years –during which half the population has lost access to a public pension - implies that individuals will have different expectations as to their future social pension eligibility and pension level, and hence respond differently with regard to private savings. Furthermore, those who spent most of their working life under the old regime may have saved very little over their life-cycle, while those who begun working just before or after the new regime started may be saving in much the same way as predicted by the life-cycle hypothesis (Friedman, 1957). The baby-boom generation (parents of the one-child generation) may have different saving behaviour from the previous generation. The one-child generation may again differ from their parents (baby-boomers) because they foresee the heavy responsibility of supporting both their parent generation and themselves. There is a range of theoretical challenges involved in these saving issues as saving responses are likely to vary significantly across cohorts and policy regimes.

In this paper we will use a repeated cross-section household survey data for 18 years (1986-2003) to study the change in household saving behaviour as response to the demographic change and pension reform. In particular we are interested in estimating the cohort specific marginal propensity to save. Using estimated coefficients from the savings equation, we will apply simulation techniques to project wealth scenarios as individuals reach retirement age. These wealth scenarios by household income levels and birth cohorts will provide some indication of the extent to which private savings can supplement or replace public provision of pensions. Special attention will be given to the pattern of savings among poor households and baby boomers who have had limited time to save and only one child to provide future intra family transfers.

摘要：中国人口结构的改变比大多数国家都要快。中国政府从1979年开始采取计划生育政策，规定一对夫妻只生一个小孩。到了20世纪末，中国已提前进入老龄社会。接下来的几十年里，中国人口将出现倒金字塔，老年人会多于青年人（Cai and Meng, 2003, Cai, Giles, and Meng, 2006）同时，中国养老金的收入方式也发生了迅速的改变，从而加剧了老龄化所带来的问题。在经济改革前，城市居民享受着从摇篮到坟墓的终生社会保障制度。每个人都能从国家领取一份由国有企业或是集体企业交纳的养老金。改革前的制度规定，由国有企业向国家上缴利润，国家再把这些钱投入到养老金帐户中。80年代初开始的经济改革允许国有企业留存利润，但必须负担本企业职工的养老金。90年代初，企业发生的重大变革使得劳动力市场也发生改变，从而影响了旧的养老金融资方式。首先，一些国有企业开始出现亏损甚至破产，无力承担本企业的养老金支出。其次，许多国有企业的工人下岗了，到了2000年，国有企业职工人数仅为的城市就业人口的41%。（World Bank, 1997; Selden and You, 1997; West, 1999; Feldstein, 1999; Meng, 2000; Whiteford, 2001; NSB, 2001; Murton, 2002; Zhao and Xu, 2002）

鉴于这些经济改革所带来的压力，1995年政府开始转而实行新的个人退休金存款帐户制度，制度规定企业和个人直接向养老金存款帐户注入资金，长远目标是为了建立全额融资的个人存款制度。但是，这种制度的覆盖面太过狭窄。根据劳动社会保障局的统计，2002年仅有45％的全职雇工进入新社会保障体系的覆盖范围。（MOLSS，2003）。同十年前所有的国有企业的职工都享受社会养老金保障相比，这一变化及其显著。一份关于五大城市的调查勾画出了同样的图景并显示：2002年，在调查的样本中仅有48%的人享受社会养老保障，而采取个人养老保险的人不足2% (Cai and Meng, 2003)。更另人担忧的是，现行的社会养老保障体系存在很大的缺陷。随着人口老龄化的加速，经济学家预测现行的社会养老保障体系将难以维系。（West, 1999; Feldstein, 1999; Whiteford, 2001; Murton, 2002; Zhao and Xu, 2002; Holland, 2002）

中国的养老金改革使得许多城市居民老无保障。因此，个人储蓄就成为维持退休后开销的重要资金来源。在去十年的养老金制度改革中，约半数的人失去了社会养老金的保障，意味着每个人对于将来能否获得养老金以及获得多少有着不同的预期，因此对个人储蓄也会采取不同的策略安排。进一步来说，对于那些在旧体制下工作了大半辈子的人而言，一生中的储蓄会很少，但是对于那些新体制采取前刚刚开始工作或是之后才工作的人而言，他们的储蓄行为就同生命周期假说理论所预示的一样。（Friedman, 1957）婴儿潮年代出生的那一代人（独生子女的父母一辈）和他们前一代人相比储蓄行为会不一样。独生子女一代在预见到未来将肩负着父母和自身年老后的双重压力的前提下，与他们的父母（婴儿潮时期出生的人）相比储蓄行为也会产生差异。鉴于储蓄行为极有可能因群体的不同以及政策的改变而发生重大变化，有关储蓄的理论将面临着一系列的挑战。

本文我们采用一项持续18年的家庭横截面调查数据（1986-2003）来研究家庭储蓄行为在人口结构改变以及养老金制度变革下产生的变化。我们尤其关注对不同群体特定边际消费倾向的估计。利用从储蓄方程得到的估计系数，我们通过模拟的方法来勾勒人们退休时的福利情景。这些依据家庭收入水平和出生群体所得的福利水平可以为人们提供参考以决定该储蓄多少来弥补或是代替社会养老金供给。婴儿潮时期出生的人由于储蓄时间有限并且仅有一个孩子可以提供家庭资金未来的内部转移，他们将和穷困的家庭一样成为我们的特别关注。
（林晶 译）

[3] "Does the Gradient Matter? Further Understanding the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital"
梯度重要吗？对代际人力资源传递的进一步理解
George H. Jakubson, Cornell University，USA (美国康乃尔大学)
André Portela Souza, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Brazil

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the educational attainment of parents and children in a developing country context and evaluates the importance of the gradients. Specifically, it explores three related questions: (i) Is there a causal effect in the intergenerational transmission of human capital? (ii) if yes, does the gradient matter? That is, are there decreasing marginal effects of parent’s schooling? And (iii) do these effects differ across genders? That is, do mothers and fathers affect sons and daughters differently? These questions are explored using a large household survey data set from Brazil that includes retrospective information on the adult individual’s parents’ educational attainments. The data set is the 1996 Brazilian Annual Household Survey from the Brazilian Census Bureau (PNAD/IBGE).

This study makes use of a sample of husbands and wives with information on their final educational attainment as well as information on the schooling levels of their parents. We use Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques to estimate structural empirical models that control for unobservable characteristics under reasonable assumptions. We compare those results to those from OLS and SUR estimations. The results suggest that OLS and SUR estimates of the intergenerational transmission of human capital are biased upward. After controlling for individual and family unobservable attributes, the intergenerational impact is three to four times smaller. More importantly, however, it finds that even after controlling for individual and family unobservable characteristics, there is still a strong effect of parent’s schooling on the schooling levels of their sons and daughters. Moreover, there is a clear gradient effect. The effect of parent's schooling on children's schooling appears to exhibit diminishing returns under certain range of the schooling cycle. Finally, fathers have stronger impacts on sons than on daughters, and mothers have stronger effects on daughters than on sons. These results shed some new light in understanding the intergeneration transmission of human capital. First, it suggests that there is a causal relationship from parent’s education to the education of sons and daughters. Second, the impact is larger at lower levels of schooling, and diminishes as schooling attainment increases for a given cycle of the formal education. Third, there appears to be a strong gender component in the intergenerational transmission mechanism.

摘要：本文在一个发展中国家背景下，考察了父母与孩子受教育程度之间的关系，并评估了梯度的重要性。具体而言，本文探讨了三个相关问题：1.人力资本的代际传递是否存在因果效应？2.如果答案是肯定的，那么梯度是否重要？换言之，父母受教育程度的边际效应递减是否存在？3.这些效应是否存在性别差异？也就是说，母亲与父亲对儿子和女儿的影响是否不同？利用一个巴西大型家庭调查数据库，本文对这三个相关问题进行了分析。该数据库是巴西人口普查局的《巴西家庭调查年鉴——1996》，其中包括了关于成年人个人的父母的受教育程度的回顾信息。利用一个关于丈夫和妻子最终受教育程度及其父母受教育水平信息的样本，我们使用广义矩估计法估计了合理假设下控制不可观测特征的结构经验模型，并将这些结果与用最小二乘法和似无关回归估计法得到的估计结果进行比较，最终表明最小二乘法和似无关回归估计法的关于人力资本代际传递的估计值是向上偏误的。在控制了家庭和个人的不可观测贡献后，代际影响下降到原来的三分之一到四分之一。然而，即便在控制了个人和家庭的不可观测贡献之后，父母的受教育水平对子女的受教育水平的影响依然很强。另外，明显的梯度效应是存在的，在教育周期的一定范围内，父母受教育程度对子女受教育程度的效应呈现出报酬递减。最后，父亲对儿子的影响比女儿大，母亲对女儿的影响更大。这些结果为理解人力资本的代际传递提供了新的观点：其一，从父母的受教育程度到子女的受教育程度之间存在因果关系；其二，对于给定周期的正式教育而言，在教育水平较低时影响较大，随着教育水平的提高影响递减；其三，在代际传递机制中，存在强的性别成分。
（周波 译）

Section 12A (English) Theoretical Labor Economics and Public Policy (II)

[1] "The Effect of Wage Differences on the Cyclical Behavior of the Two Genders in the Labor Market"
工资差异对两性在劳动力市场经济周期中表现的影响
Nissim Ben David, University of Haifa and Emek Yezreel Academic College, Israel (以色列海法大学和Emek Yezreel学院)

Abstract: During prosperous periods, which are characterized by an increase in productivity and in wages, the rates of separation from occupied jobs decrease while the probabilities of finding a new job increase. Thus, unemployment rates fall. Empirical observations however, indicate that the magnitude of this decline is not the same for both genders. This paper investigates the effect of the business cycle on the probabilities of transition between employment and unemployment for men and women. It provides a possible explanation of how different changes in variables, such as wages or productivity of each gender, would effect the separation rates and the probabilities of finding a job for each gender, and thus, determine differences in the magnitude and the direction of the change in the rate of unemployment.

摘要：繁荣时期，其特征是产出效率提高和工资增加，离职率下降、就职率上升，导致失业率的下降。经验数据表明，男女的失业率下降幅度是不一样的。本文考察了商业周期对男女失业和就业之间转换可能性的影响。对工资或产出效率的变化如何影响离职率和就职率、这些比率在男女之间的差异以及失业率的变化方向，本文提供了一种可能的解释。
（李仙弟 译）

[2] "Employee Screening: Theory and Evidence"
雇员甄选：理论与实证
Fali Huang, Singapore Management University, Singapore (新加坡管理大学)
Peter Cappelli, University of Pennsylvania, USA

Abstract: Arguably the fundamental problem faced by employers is how to elicit effort from employees. Most models suggest that employers meet this challenge by monitoring employees carefully to prevent shirking. But there is another option that relies on heterogeneity across employees, and that is to screen job candidates to find workers with a stronger work ethic who require less monitoring. This should be especially useful in work systems where monitoring by supervisors is more difficult, such as teamwork systems. We analyze the relationship between screening and monitoring in the context of a principal-agent model and test the theoretical results using a national sample of U.S. establishments, which includes information on employee selection. We find that employers screen applicants more intensively for work ethic where they make greater use of systems such as teamwork where monitoring is more difficult. This screening is also associated with higher productivity and higher wages and benefits, as predicted by the theory: The synergies between reduced monitoring costs and high performance work systems enable the firm to pay higher wages to attract and retain such workers. Screening for other attributes, such as cognitive ability, does not produce these results.

摘要：雇主面临的一个根本性的问题是如何得到有关工人的努力程度的信息。大多数模型表明雇主往往通过仔细地监视工人来防止工人怠惰。然而选择是雇主根据不同工人的不同特性来观测工人是否有很强的工作道德，从而需要较少的监督。在管理者的监控比较困难的情况下这种方法就特别有效，比如团队工作。本文另用首脑代表模型中分析了观测和监控之间的关系,并利用包括了工人选择信息的美国全国公司样本对此种理论进行检验。我们发现雇主对雇工的职业道德的观测更多地集中在一些监控比较困难的情形。与理论预测相符的是，观测与更高的工作效率、更高的工资和福利联系在一起：下降的监控成本和更高的工作表现的协同效应使公司能够支付更高的工资吸引和保留工人。而对其他方面的观察，对认知能力的观测并没有产生同样的效果。
（李云森 译）

[3] "Taxation and Unemployment Benefits with Imperfect Goods and Labor Markets"
不完全商品及劳务市场情形下税收与失业金分析
Antonio Sciala', University of Padua, Italy (意大利帕多瓦大学)
Riccardo Tilli, University of Rome "La Sapienza", Italy

Abstract: We consider a model in which the labor market is characterized by search frictions and there is monopolistic competition in the goods market. We introduce proportional income taxation and unemployment benefits with Government balanced budget constraint. Then, we evaluate the effects of both more competition in the goods market and higher unemployment benefits on labor market equilibrium and equilibrium tax rate. We show that more competition has a positive effect on equilibrium unemployment and the Government budget. Higher unemployment benefits can be financed either by higher tax rate or increasing goods market competition. Equilibrium unemployment rate raises in the former case while decreases in the latter one.

摘要：我们考虑一个物品市场为垄断竞争，同时劳动市场具有查寻摩擦的模型。在引入政府平衡预算约束下收入税和失业救济金的比例后，我们评估物品市场更加竞争的结果,以及劳动市场均衡和均衡税率时，更高的失业救济金的结果。我们证明更加竞争对平衡失业和政府预算有正的影响。更高税率或增加物品市场竞争能获得更高失业救济金。在前一种情况下均衡失业率上升而在后一种情况均衡失业率下降。
（余洪 译）

Section 12B (English) China's Labor Market (V): Migration

[1] "A Numerical Simulation Analysis of Labor Mobility Restrictions in China"
中国劳动力流动限制的数量模拟分析
John Whalley, University of Western Ontario, Canada, NBER, USA and CESifo, Germany
Shunming Zhang (张顺明) (szhang@xmu.edu.cn), Xiamen University, China (厦门大学经济学院)

Abstract: We use numerical simulation methods to analyze the Hukou system of permanent registration in China which many believe has supported growing relative inequality over the last 20 years by restraining labour migration both between the countryside and urban areas and between regions and cities. Our aim is to inject economic modeling into the debate on sources of inequality in China which thus far has been largely statistical. We first use a model with homogeneous labor in which wage inequality across various geographical divides in China is supported solely by quantity based migration restrictions (urban-rural areas, rich-poor regions, eastern coastal-central and western (non-coastal) zones, eastern and central -western development zones, eastern-central-western zones, more disagregated 6 regional classifications, and an all 31 provincial classification). We calibrate this model to base case data and when we remove migration restrictions all wage and most income inequality disappears. Results from this model structure point to a significant role for Hukou restrictions in supporting inequality in China. We then present a further model extension in which urban house price rises retard rural-urban migration. The impacts of removing Hukou restrictions on migration are smaller, but are still significant. Finally, we modify the model to capture labor productivity differences across regions, calibrating the modified model to estimates of both national and regional Gini coefficients. Removal of migration barriers is again inequality improving but less so.

摘要：我们用数字模拟方法来分析中国的永久登记户口制度，许多人相信过去20年由于限制人口在农村和城市、各城市地区之间流动造成日趋增长的相对不平等是可以由这种制度来支撑的。我们的目标是把经济模型引入到中国不平等的根源的讨论中去，使讨论变得数据化。首先我们使用一个同质劳动力模型，在这个模型里我们考虑了很多不同地区划分下的由人口流动数量受限制所导致的工资不平等（城—乡、富裕地区—贫穷地区、东部沿海地区—中部—西部（非沿海）地区、东部—中部—西部较发达地区、东部—中部—西部地区、更多的6个区域的划分和所有31个省的划分）。我们用基本事件数据来标准化这个模型，当我们把人口流动限制去掉之后，所有的工资和大部分的收入不平等消失了。模型结构所给出的结果指出户口制度在支撑中国的不平等上扮演了一个非常重要的角色。接着我们对模型作了一个延伸：城市住房价格的增长延缓了城乡人口流动。取消户口限制对人口流动的影响的限制是很小的，但是仍然是很重要的。最后，我们修改模型来探讨地区之间的劳动生产率差异，标准化修改后的模型来估计国家以及地区的基尼系数。取消人口流动限制仍能改善不平等，虽然不能全面改善。
（林忠剑 译）

[2] "International Migration and Development: The Case of Fujian Province"
Zai Liang, University at Albany, SUNY, USA (纽约州立大学阿尔巴尼校区)
Hideki Morooka,University at Albany, SUNY, USA

Abstract: During recent years, a dramatic increase in emigration from China has been witnessed. In this paper, we examine remittance patterns in Fujian Province, which has sent the largest number of international migrants in recent decades. Our main theoretical argument is to suggest that researchers move beyond the simple dichotomy of production versus consumption in discussion of the use of remittances. We argue that another dimension of the use of remittances should be considered: remittances used for education and public projects. The educational infrastructure and public projects are an important part of the basic infrastructure that will likely keep the current and future population and stimulate innovations and entrepreneurial spirit. Using data from a survey done in Fujian Province, the empirical part of the paper examines three questions: who remitted, determinants of remittance amount, and how remittances are used. The role of overseas Chinese remittances in China’s economic rise is discussed in the final part of the paper.

[3] "Leaving the Land, but not Their Hometown? --- Public Trust and Labor Migration in Rural China"
离土不离乡？中国农村的公共信任与劳动力流动
Ming Lu, Fudan University, China
Shuang Zhang (张爽), Fudan University, China (复旦大学)

Abstract: How does public trust in rural community change with China’s economic transition? This paper focuses on the relationship between public trust and labor migration, as an angle to observe the transformation of rural China. We find that, in rural China, labor migration at community level increases public trust to local institutions, while public trust to local institutions at community level reduces labor migration. Besides, public trust falls and then rises in the marketization process, showing a U-shape.

摘要：在中国经济转型的过程中农村地区的公共信任发生了何种变化？本文通过研究农村人口流动与公共信任之间的关系这样一个视角观察转型时期的中国农村。我们发现，农村人口流动增强了公众对本地机构的信任，而公众对本地机构的信任又减少了农村人口流动。另外，在市场化的过程中，公共信任先降后升，呈U型。

Section 12C (Chinese) China's Labor Market and Public Policy: Current Issues (IV)

[1] "From Green Economy to Green Labor Market"
从绿色经济到绿色劳动
Yuqun Yao, Renmin University of China, China
Fuli Guo (国福丽) Helongjiang University, China (黑龙江大学)

[2] "Studies of the Minimum Wage in China"
经济转型期中国最低工资制度与和谐社会建设
Daidai Lin (林玳玳), Beijing Jiaotong University, China (北京交通大学经济管理学院劳动经济研究所副所长)
Yuan Lin, Beijing Normal University, China
Lunqu Yuan, Beijing Normal University, China

Abstract: The minimum wage is introduced by the government to raise the wage of low-skill workers above the equilibrium wage, and it can improve the income condition of these workers. The minimum wage will help to protect the interests of the employees and promote the harmonious development of society in China during economic transition when labor supply exceeds labor demand. This paper studies the necessity of the minimum wage in China during economic transition, and analyzes the current situation of China’s minimum wage. Finally some suggestions are given to policy makers on improving the minimum wage.

摘要：政府通过最低工资制度把低技能劳动者的工资提高到市场均衡工资水平之上，从而改善这些劳动者的收入状况。对于处于经济转型期的中国而言，在劳动力供大于求的情况下，最低工资制度的实施将有利于维护劳动者的权益，促进社会的和谐发展。本文讨论了经济转型期中国实施最低工资制度的必要性，并对中国最低工资制度的现状进行了分析，基于此提出政策建议。

[3] "Demographic Dividend and Labor Market Policy of China"
人口红利与中国的劳动经济政策
Daisheng Tang (唐代盛) Renmin University of China (中国人民大学)

[4] "An Analysis of the Evolution of China's Pension Policy"
中国养老保险制度变迁的经济学分析
Zhiyong Yang (杨志勇) (zyxxmu@yahoo.com.cn), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China (中国社会科学院)